Unintended Consequences

More bad news for the tourist industry in Kenya this week and once again in Lamu; in fact this latest kidnapping took place on Manda island, a short swim from where we stayed in Shela. Manda Island is where Lamu airstrip is situated and where huge mansions filled with European millionaires hug the beach.

The rise of piracy off the coast of Somali in the last decade has taken the world by surprise: contrary to our romantic notions Somali pirates bear no resemblance to Johnny Depp. Somali piracy began with fishermen who could no longer fish because Somalia, being the most failed of the world’s failed states, couldn’t defend its waters against the dumping of toxic waste and illegal fishing by foreign vessels. This combination of illegal fishing and pollution decimated fishing stocks, threatening the meagre livelihoods of local fishermen.

In a rather aggressive form of direct action this population of desperate and angry fishermen began took a stand against the depletion of their fishing stocks. I hardly believe that when the first Somali took up arms against the global shipping trade he would guess how successful it could become. The Somali pirate is a true western entrepreneur, innovating his way out of a dying industry.

So, Somali fishermen found a new line of work in piracy and the shipping industry found its insurance costs on the rise. These shipping tycoons weathered increased premiums because it was still cheaper than properly defending their crew and cargo. On the upside (for some) it did deter smaller vessels, and fishermen in Malindi, Kenya, begin getting bumper catches.

As piracy became more prevalent pirates took aim at a variety of vessels, including private yachts, where these former fishermen came upon a new lucrative new catch: the rich white person.

Catching rich white people was seemingly less dangerous than taking cruise ships, which were becoming better at defending themselves, and other shipping vessels (defended by a multi-national navy). It also needed less people and smaller boats to board a yacht, so you can see the business sense in diversifying into kidnapping. Although the Somali pirate has found attacking French yachts a little more dicey than he might have preferred.

The Somali pirate, being the entrepreneurial sort, is not easily dissuaded though, as he is now making a lot more money from piracy than fishing. Somalis are also rather sanguine about death (what with there having been a hell of a lot of it in two decades of civil war, leaving a generation of young men who have known nothing but fighting and have zero to lose). So, spin forward to last year and the Somali piracy community received a good payout from another “rich-white-person” catch. Back in 2009, an intrepid couple of Britishers found themselves with rather unexpected company on their yacht as they sailed from the Seychelles. The pirates found capturing a British yacht had slightly less dire consequences than catching a French yacht.

After over a year in captivity, and in part thanks to the Somali diaspora community in the UK, some money appeared in the Somali pirate’s pocket and the nice British couple were released. They were released for interviews with BBC Radio, newspapers and a lucrative book deal (the mainstay of the hostage post-kidnap).

Our Somali pirate is there scratching his chin, quite a few pennies richer. He no longer fishes for tuna, he no longer fishes for oil-tankers or cruise ships, now he can fish for the rich people. True, his first big catch took 13 months to pay off, but once the market price for rich white people is set, inefficiencies will start to kick in: that’s what the free market is all about. And who can blame him? A lot has been said in the media of growing income inequalities in the world and our friend, the entrepreneurial Somali pirate, is once again showing us the benefit of direct action.

After a foray into the Lamu archipelago last month, and another last week, even within sight of Lamu old town itself, the game has changed once again. The Somali pirate has realised he doesn't have to catch the migratory rich white person crossing the Gulf of Aden, he can pick them like bananas from a tree just down the road in Kenya, where they are growing abundantly.

And this last unintended consequence? The UK Foreign Office changes its travel advice for the area, wealthy Europeans and Americans begin avoiding Kenya just as the Kenyan tourist industry has started to recover from the Post-Election Violence. The Kenyan economy, which could desperately use tourist euros and dollars to prop up its own ailing currency ( 20% depreciation in the last year), takes another hit. This in turn increases inflation in Kenya, a net-importer, which is already at a blistering 17% per annum, hitting ordinary Kenyans in their pockets and their bellies across the country. Hundreds of local people face losing their jobs in luxury resorts and hotels and we have a new crop of disenfranchised citizens wondering what the hell went wrong.


The International shipping industry has no interest in the livelihoods of ordinary Somalis, just as Somali pirates have no interest in the livelihoods of ordinary Kenyans. Yet each one gets swept up in the actions of the other.