Return to Kisumu

I've just returned from another week in Kisumu helping RAFODE implement some of my recommendations from my previous visit. I'll be sharing my working experience at RAFODE soon, but first a little more about Kisumu...

Compared to the traffic and hustle of Nairobi, Kisumu is a welcome change of pace, but it's not without its own issues. Recently, the town council has banned matatus from the town centre. Matatu drivers are obviously displeased and, never the most retiring of characters, have made their anger known: after a series of protests, they began to target the beneficiaries of this ban - tuk-tuks and their drivers on Wednesday. We heard about this just as we ordered dinner at a restaurant in town, and after we quickly changed our order to go, we called our friend Pascal the tuk-tuk driver.

Pascal is a famous man in Kisumu - famous to every foreigner in town anyway. He is honest, fair and usually on time, but he really made his name among the wazungu of Kisumu by helping many of the volunteers get out of the town during the Post-Election Violence of 2008. Since then he is the go-to tuk-tuk man.

The usually affable Pascal arrived at the restaurant quite shaken: he had just dropped off some wazungu in Milimani, an upmarket 'burb of Kisumu, but on his return saw an overturned tuk-tuk, people throwing rocks at other tuk-tuks and down one street two matatus taking up both lanes of the road driving straight at him. He managed his escape from a situation that would have undoubtedly meant the end of his livelihood and no small amount of physical harm by nipping down a side street at the last moment.

He got us home safely and uneventfully on this occasion, and we made sure he let us know that he got himself home safely too. Later in the week, he told us his best friend (another tuk-tuk driver) had been arrested for inciting violence, which, bearing in mind tuk-tuk drivers were the target of the violence, was hardly likely. Unfortunately, it was easier for Pascal's friend to accept the charge than to protest his innocence: he neither had the money for a lawyer nor the ability to afford the time away from his business to investigate and dismiss the charge. Suffice it to say justice for all is actually justice for all those who can pay.

The next day in Kisumu, there was no evidence of any tension between the matatus and the tuk-tuks; I guess there is only so long you can fight before it becomes too bad for business and you have to get back to earning. And matatus are still not allowed to go to the town centre.

But this was not the only civil unrest in Kisumu that week...

Later in the week we were warned not to go into town as there was some tension building due to a pending decision from Parliament. Kisumu is a predominantly Luo area and the Prime Minister Raila Odinga is a Luo (he is also MP for Kibera in Nairobi). Recently, the President nominated a new Attorney General and Chief Justice as part of the implementation of the new constitution.

Unfortunately, he did this without consulting the PM who had been sent by the President to the meeting of the African Union - seemingly for the express purpose of allowing the President to draw up his list of nominees in peace.

Upon his return the PM immediately objected to the nominees and drew up his own list of nominees, throwing these into the ring. What followed was mudslinging on both sides by their respective lieutenants, the tedium of political process and, potentially, a decision last week.

For the Luo community in Kisumu, there would be celebrations if the Luo PM's nominees were accepted and violent protest if the President's nominees were accepted.

As I watched Parliament at a stall-holder's TV set in Kisumu market, I asked what he thought of the situation. He said they didn't take it seriously enough and that Kenya's future was at stake. When I asked him what he thought about the Big Two (the collective name for the PM and President) he looked at me suspiciously but then said that Kibaki was a tribalist and that Odinga was a good man. That the Luo community were potentially going to riot if their man did not get his way struck me as a little tribalist, but what do I know?

In the end the MP's had a little chuckle and deferred their decision to this week, much to the chagrin of the would-be rioters in Kisumu.

The side story to all this is that President Kibaki's allies are some of the Ocampo Six, including Ruto and Kenyatta. Kibaki's nominees are therefore to be in place to help set up local tribunals to try Post Election Violence suspects once Kenya defers the ICC process. This would allow the local tribunals the opportunity to give our hopeful presidential hopefuls an easy ride.

The strategy is somewhat obvious but that does not discount its potential for success in, as we've already mentioned, a rather tame media. International pressure is the main driver for Kenya's continued participation in the ICC process. The flipside to this is that it allows Kenyan politicians the chance to brand the ICC a colonial relic damaging Kenya's independence. And of course Kenya's leaders know that the international community is a fickle beast: the US and UK might keep the pressure up but if they get distracted by, say, another military engagement, apocalyptic financial crisis or the hunt for some mythical terrorist then their priorities will change. Moral outrage for the victims of the Post Election Violence will turn to pragmatism to meet more short-term priorities. On top of that, Kenya's key development partner China is more than disengaged from the ICC process and China's input is rapidly becoming more important than the US or UK.